Most of them will be driven to scholastic tournaments, getting medals and trophies, then everyone is happy. But most of them will be stuck there, and drop out in the end, because they are not improving. Their results are kind of random. Thousands of young kids have been stuck under 1000 after 3 or 4 years of tournaments, which basically mean that they fail to graduate from elementary school.
I consider 1000 as elementary school, 1500 as middle school and 1800 as high school. Everyone should be able to reach 1500, with some hard work!
What the American chess education lacks is a systematic approach, and the Steps Method is the answer. It's not a system for super star, But it's something concrete and repeatable. After 4-year education, assisted with some tournament play, the students should be able to reach 1500.